The blockade, which took effect on Monday following the collapse of talks in Islamabad, is now being actively enforced across the wider region, with US authorities warning that vessels linked to Iranian ports could be intercepted or seized. Early signs of disruption have already emerged, with ship-tracking data showing that some vessels have turned back before entering the strait, while others rushed to exit ahead of the blockade deadline. At the same time, limited transit has continued for ships not bound for Iran, highlighting the selective nature of the restrictions.

Oil corridor under pressure The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical oil corridors, handling roughly a fifth of global oil and gas trade. Any disruption to traffic through the narrow waterway has immediate consequences for energy markets. The blockade has already reduced maritime activity, with reports indicating a sharp drop in tanker movements and growing congestion in surrounding waters.

Analysts warn that prolonged restrictions could significantly tighten global supply. Iran has strongly condemned the move, describing it as piracy and warning of retaliation, raising fears of further escalation in an already volatile region. Oil prices volatile amid mixed signals Oil prices initially surged above $100 per barrel following the announcement, reflecting fears of supply disruption.

However, prices have since shown signs of volatility, with some easing reported amid cautious optimism that diplomatic efforts could resume. Despite this, analysts stress that markets remain highly sensitive, with even limited disruptions or threats to shipping enough to push prices higher. Implications for South Africa For South Africa, the developments could have direct consequences at the pumps.

The country relies heavily on imported fuel, making it vulnerable to global oil price swings and exchange rate movements. The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy adjusts fuel prices monthly, meaning sustained increases in crude oil prices or shipping costs could translate into higher petrol and diesel prices in the coming weeks. Even short-term instability – such as delayed shipments, higher insurance premiums for tankers or reduced supply – can drive up costs for importers.

Outlook remains uncertain While some diplomatic signals suggest a possible return to negotiations, the situation remains fluid. Military operations, including efforts to secure shipping lanes and counter potential threats such as naval mines, underscore the seriousness of the situation. With global energy markets closely watching developments, South African motorists face continued uncertainty, as any escalation in the Strait of Hormuz could quickly feed through into higher fuel prices.

Latest forecast Below, the latest projections as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF): FUELPRICE CHANGEPetrol 93increase of 282 centsPetrol 95increase of 320 centsDiesel 0.05%increase of 961 centsDiesel 0.005%increase of 964 centsIlluminating Paraffinincrease of 759 cents If the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – an increase of 282 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and an increase of 320 cents for 95 users is anticipated. Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 961 and 964 cents per litre increase.

Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to rise by 759 cents in price. FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS: 1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices 2.

The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products Oil price At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $98.48 a barrel. Exchange rate At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.36/$. The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on Tuesday, 5 May. The April 2026 petrol and diesel prices (Inland and Coastal): INLANDAprilPetrol 93R23.25Petrol 95R23.36Diesel 0.05%R25.90Diesel 0.005%R26.11Illuminating ParaffinR24.21 COASTALAprilPetrol 93R22.46Petrol 95R22.53Diesel 0.05%R25.07Diesel 0.005%R25.35Illuminating ParaffinR23.19